RSFAS Seminar Series – Dr Sumonkanti Das

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Speaker: Dr Sumonkanti Das 

Institution: Australian National University

Date and Time: 10:00-11:00, Thursday 09 December 2021

Title: Multilevel time series modelling of antenatal care coverage in Bangladesh at disaggregated administrative levels

Abstract: In this study, multilevel time series (MTS) models are applied to estimate trends in time series of antenatal care coverage at several administrative levels in Bangladesh, based on repeated editions of the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS) within the period 1994-2014. MTS models are expressed in a hierarchical Bayesian framework and fitted using Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. The models account for varying time lags of three or four years between the editions of the BDHS and provide predictions for the intervening years as well. It is proposed to apply cross-sectional Fay-Herriot (FH) models to the survey years separately at district level (the most detailed regional level in this study) and then time series of these small domain predictions at the district level and their variance-covariance matrices are used as input series for the MTS models. Spatial correlations among districts, random intercept and slope at the district level, and different trend models at district level and higher regional levels are examined in the MTS models to borrow strength over time and space. Trend estimates at district level are obtained directly from the MTS model outputs, while trend estimates at higher regional and national levels are obtained by aggregation of the district level predictions, resulting in a numerically consistent set of trend estimates.

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